Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Baylor Bears vs. St. John's Red Storm
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed1e4c4135a2897c5500cbade84f030d918ad7b2c0ae6230a6b8d993544f14a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. John's Red Stormof Baylor Bears, St. John's Red Storm
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Baylor Bears | 22c | 35,000$7,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,754.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked St. John's Red Storm | 75c | 23,091$17,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,772.65 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed St. John's Red Storm | 71c | 3,302$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.1 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Baylor Bears | 30c | 2,553$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.16 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Baylor Bears | 5c | 2,327$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baylor Bears | 33c | 1,045$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.6 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…d4d4backed Baylor Bears | 17c | 950.11$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Baylor Bears | 10c | 944.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Baylor Bears | 29c | 799.68$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked St. John's Red Storm | 67c | 741.61$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…5ba6backed Baylor Bears | 30c | 657.75$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Baylor Bears | 28c | 615.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 490 | 43.1%211 W · 279 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Baylor Bears | 32c | 500.64$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed St. John's Red Storm | 71c | 479.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed St. John's Red Storm | 70c | 400$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…a8ebbacked St. John's Red Storm | 72c | 359.72$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbde…a758backed St. John's Red Storm | 68c | 312.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Baylor Bears | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked St. John's Red Storm | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -14.7wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed St. John's Red Storm | 72c | 278.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…fdb3backed Baylor Bears | 18c | 254.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…3233backed St. John's Red Storm | 73c | 254.28$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Baylor Bears | 30c | 224.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed St. John's Red Storm | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Baylor Bears | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Baylor Bears | 28c | 195$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8b99backed Baylor Bears | 17c | 106.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Baylor Bears | 29c | 86.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Baylor Bears | 29c | 83.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Baylor Bears | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Baylor Bears | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Baylor Bears | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Baylor Bears | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Baylor Bears | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0c…2fb0backed St. John's Red Storm | 73c | 38.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f8…f29cbacked Baylor Bears | 31c | 34.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…8da0backed St. John's Red Storm | 69c | 34.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…8938backed St. John's Red Storm | 71c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2e…6200backed St. John's Red Storm | 78c | 17.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed St. John's Red Storm | 75c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baylor Bears vs. St. John's Red Stormthis page
- Baylor Bears vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 160.5Over won
- Baylor Bears vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: St. John's Red Storm (-5.5)St. John's Red Storm won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.