Boxing · resolved market
Jorge Masvidal vs. Nate Diaz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed371814dc5da36cf8e6f4b0dcbde2d604ec293b0278d5b97075995a39a28e8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Diazof Masvidal, Diaz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Masvidal | 62c | 649.99$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Diaz | 37c | 518.91$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…e595backed Masvidal | 61c | 394.19$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…e621backed Masvidal | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Masvidal | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5247…a253backed Diaz | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Masvidal | 68c | 145.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Diaz | 29c | 100.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…00c2backed Diaz | 39c | 92.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f16dbacked Diaz | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…5f3ebacked Diaz | 34c | 62.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Diaz | 33c | 57.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c5…2ab5backed Diaz | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked Diaz | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Masvidal | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Masvidal | 67c | 39.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…845cbacked Masvidal | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b10…a38abacked Masvidal | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.