MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed3f26c40490d6f4669bae6e79ed156bf26164ac6483b5f5e35d7fe0a124f76d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 72c | 3,601$2,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 3,328$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 26c | 2,905$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.2 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 1,744$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 37c | 621.68$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.02 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 28c | 362.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Over | 46c | 323.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 60c | 275.57$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 60c | 258.33$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 33c | 233$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 31c | 179.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 54c | 159.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 20c | 157.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 48c | 111$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 49c | 100.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 20c | 86.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 74.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 33c | 57.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 42c | 56.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Over | 26c | 51.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Under | 62c | 41.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Under | 67c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed Under | 69c | 26.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 59c | 26.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 74c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.