TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$260,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$260,346

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,470 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over46c217,391$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,999.8548148.6%234 W · 247 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Under54c90,000$48,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,399.9950553.5%270 W · 235 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Under54c45,844$24,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,088.0632351.7%167 W · 156 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under54c30,537$16,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,0471,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under54c21,058$11,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,687.4592554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Under54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,20044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under54c19,760$10,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,088.744,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under53c12,709$6,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,020.7611,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Over46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60036246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Over47c10,000$4,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70049051%250 W · 240 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under54c4,791$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,203.9132451.9%168 W · 156 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over50c2,109$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.782,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9005,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Over46c1,800$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83366250.2%332 W · 330 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under55c1,780$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8011,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Over47c1,277$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9917546.9%82 W · 93 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over48c900$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.52,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over46c805$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.357753.2%307 W · 270 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Under50c608.62$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.9622753.3%121 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under55c555.37$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.9257053.3%304 W · 266 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Over45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22522638.5%87 W · 139 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under55c484$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.81,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over47c481.05$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.888,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over46c455.67$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6190053.6%482 W · 418 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Over34c449.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.51,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Over43c443.07$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.255040%20 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under69c380.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3738453.9%207 W · 177 L+16.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over41c368.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.23,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Over46c326.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012253.3%65 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14139440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over46c239.78$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.390446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Over47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.438342%161 W · 222 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610249%50 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over46c190.64$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.291,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under54c190$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.696,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under53c188.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6735643.5%155 W · 201 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed Over42c186.61$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3152228%146 W · 376 L-57.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x07d7…f0e9backed Under63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.732171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Over43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.234443.9%151 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Under55c127.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2767449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Over52c120.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.451,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.21,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Over46c117$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8268846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Over46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052045.2%235 W · 285 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over45c106.87$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.092,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under49c106.63$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3867653.1%359 W · 317 L+29.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under57c103.05$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.825,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under54c102.54$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1757747.7%275 W · 302 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4984651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.81,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under56c97.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2510,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Under55c90.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5515848.7%77 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over47c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.326860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Under54c85.69$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4253644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over44c85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked Over44c85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.55853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under66c81.53$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.049,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under55c71.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.941,81949.3%896 W · 923 L-24.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under74c67.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.442,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over45c67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.152,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over49c65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.851,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed Over45c62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.97343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ebd…7fd4backed Over21c61.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.994141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa23c…ae92backed Under55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5516751.5%86 W · 81 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d69…ab3abacked Over46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514450.7%73 W · 71 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over21c52.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.028,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Under55c47.27$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2725356.9%144 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under54c44.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.381,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over46c42.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.412,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.81,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3173849.3%364 W · 374 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Under68c39.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7939953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Under69c39.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2239051.5%201 W · 189 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2126…aeebbacked Over42c38.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.299355.9%52 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over43c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9618151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under61c36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.984,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7524448.8%119 W · 125 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Under54c34.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0725448.4%123 W · 131 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…bf6cbacked Over46c30.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.712,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Over48c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.535849.4%177 W · 181 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Under55c29.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4144347.9%212 W · 231 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Over45c27.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4720156.2%113 W · 88 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over40c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3331848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Under55c25.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4589950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Over48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0917659.7%105 W · 71 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under49c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Under54c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552852.1%275 W · 253 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Under69c24.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6588046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under71c22.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.331,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked Over53c21.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2319257.8%111 W · 81 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Over52c20.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611,82854.1%989 W · 839 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a86…4eebbacked Under74c20.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.227850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f04…2392backed Under80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.110557.1%60 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.