College Football · resolved market
San Jose State vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4ada0f7e339f3d5dd8e65e4e4e04c495f64ded960e13d382675e166b399313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof San Jose State, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed San Jose State | 20c | 31,317$6,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,371.09 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed San Jose State | 17c | 18,964$3,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,223.85 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed San Jose State | 20c | 11,800$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked San Diego State | 79c | 10,653$8,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.13 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked San Jose State | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed San Jose State | 20c | 8,913$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.63 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed San Jose State | 19c | 3,918$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.38 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed San Jose State | 4c | 3,582$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.82 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34d…ed8fbacked San Jose State | 21c | 3,333$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked San Diego State | 79c | 3,098$2,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.49 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed San Jose State | 21c | 2,389$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.74 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State | 79c | 2,370$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.65 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked San Jose State | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked San Jose State | 20c | 1,882$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.4 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed San Jose State | 20c | 1,800$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.03 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked San Jose State | 18c | 1,459$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked San Diego State | 79c | 1,332$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.72 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed San Jose State | 9c | 1,300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed San Jose State | 20c | 1,062$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.15 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed San Diego State | 80c | 1,015$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.04 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed San Jose State | 19c | 823.72$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed San Jose State | 19c | 612$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed San Jose State | 18c | 560$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed San Diego State | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed San Jose State | 21c | 497.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked San Jose State | 23c | 443.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed San Jose State | 21c | 369.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed San Diego State | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked San Jose State | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed San Diego State | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked San Jose State | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed San Jose State | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego State | 77c | 219.3$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed San Diego State | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed San Diego State | 80c | 183.44$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Jose State | 9c | 160.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked San Jose State | 7c | 150.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked San Jose State | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Jose State | 18c | 106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed San Jose State | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf014…d442backed San Jose State | 20c | 102.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Jose State | 15c | 102.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed San Jose State | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed San Jose State | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked San Jose State | 21c | 78.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked San Diego State | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed San Diego State | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…0c8dbacked San Diego State | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed San Diego State | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…3ed4backed San Diego State | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…f8adbacked San Diego State | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…6535backed San Diego State | 79c | 17.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…8299backed San Diego State | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…728cbacked San Diego State | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…bb0abacked San Diego State | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…c7b9backed San Diego State | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…e69bbacked San Diego State | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose State vs. San Diego Statethis page
- O/U 49.5Under won
- San Jose State vs. San Diego State: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego State (-10.5)San Diego State won
- Spread: San Diego State (-11.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.