Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed57e5c3b78948b9dab139bdc9ca4ca92db466aec36946bee3130771a37326f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,877$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Over | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 39c | 1,470$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.3 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 52c | 727.63$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.16 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 540.65$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.41 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 70c | 436.41$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.49 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 316.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Over | 65c | 168.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 742 | 56.9%422 W · 320 L | +46.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 37c | 105.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 47c | 82.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 68.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 72c | 64.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 22c | 58.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Over | 35c | 47.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 43c | 46.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…9de4backed Over | 72c | 14.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Derby County FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Derby County FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.