Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9007b86cb36cc681429e9826be25d0dda1bdbb794fdd8d36c3f7a9fe7104ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 25c | 9,430$2,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.83 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 48c | 7,826$3,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,050.39 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 75c | 5,022$3,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.58 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 1,297$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.15 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 670.94$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.5 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 661.21$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.63 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 188 | 49.5%93 W · 95 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 49c | 248.81$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 74c | 168.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 159.85$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 26c | 109.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 38c | 66.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…e467backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Over | 44c | 41.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…12fbbacked Over | 42c | 37.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 57c | 31.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 76c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 75c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.