Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49cf9286265f5e1bcb3d670c08a170f11c8027212e3502f17080dfabfb89f550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 44c | 17,828$7,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,902.58 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 13,405$7,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,891.23 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 3,460$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.8 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 837.54$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.99 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…32c9backed Over | 43c | 771.37$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 692.63$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.96 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 55c | 327.16$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.69 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 41c | 253$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 40c | 252.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 70c | 222.89$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 61c | 216$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 39c | 202$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Under | 59c | 192.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 55c | 157.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 59c | 151.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 44c | 134.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 45c | 112.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…fedbbacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 39c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 188 | 49.5%93 W · 95 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -13.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 38.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…6c90backed Over | 45c | 36.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 57c | 33.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 61c | 30.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 38c | 29.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 55c | 28.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 55c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 55c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 55c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 55c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 55c | 27.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 55c | 27.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 64c | 24.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 57c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 55c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 59c | 17.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.