Us Politics · resolved market
Trump releases JFK files by Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed9fb4e59bbab8dc41af44ad6929f04869097532d849485bddeaa079e5152439
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 4,016$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.01 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 8c | 2,484$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.1 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 5c | 2,327$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.59 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 7c | 2,230$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.58 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed No | 4c | 2,093$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 4c | 900$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…8ceabacked Yes | 68c | 298.3$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 62c | 129.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 54c | 118.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 25c | 80.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…b06abacked Yes | 48c | 45.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…bd23backed Yes | 79c | 37.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61d…f3ffbacked Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.