Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-09-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedb1539074e90c9d8cd0c96590594c22eaf1f08f540f7602a6175c59a921dfcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 58c | 30,225$17,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,694.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 30,000$12,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,600 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 58c | 12,816$7,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,440.65 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes | 39c | 6,430$2,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 40c | 5,113$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.94 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 2,291$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.4 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 60c | 2,217$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 46c | 873.79$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 645$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.55 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 60c | 362.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 44c | 340.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 68c | 222.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 40c | 211.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 70c | 179.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x205c…f554backed No | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 122.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 41c | 68.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 34c | 64.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…708cbacked Yes | 42c | 60.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…bcb8backed Yes | 35c | 56.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee15…15a7backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 29c | 45.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…4812backed Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…2ed6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-09-28?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2025-09-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.