Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd2a2dbb85b7761476cd8a923fb4c1d21af3e985d7053ee31c8cacb7938b712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 0c | 7,224$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 5c | 890.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 18c | 504.28$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 70c | 499.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 4c | 472.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 7c | 278.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 5c | 264.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 244.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 26c | 242.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 239.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 11c | 210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 26c | 201.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…a89dbacked Yes | 31c | 198.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 191.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 10c | 189.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 186.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Yes | 17c | 180.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 19c | 161.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 7c | 149.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 15c | 131.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 124.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 122.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 26c | 78.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 78.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 18c | 77.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 29c | 66.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 65.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 80c | 62.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…24efbacked Yes | 30c | 50.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 50.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…f876backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 49.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68b…dc9ebacked Yes | 25c | 47.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes | 28c | 36.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 79c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.