Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcad788a308cbb51127374d5bc7c3314b881a495c43425ba577e6847e82489424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 56c | 1,139$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.63 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 61c | 915.41$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.75 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 24c | 704.11$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 530.78$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 59c | 510$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.16 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 31c | 499.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.54 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 62c | 443.91$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 397.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 29c | 383.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.03 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 28c | 348.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.51 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 266$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…d820backed Yes | 28c | 265.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 29c | 252.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.04 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 32c | 242.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 28c | 212.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.77 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 35c | 206.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 39c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 190.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 179.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 39c | 177.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 163.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 64c | 157.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 23c | 147.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 147$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 61c | 143.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 71c | 141.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 139.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 61c | 137.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 75c | 132.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…b776backed No | 77c | 130.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 127.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 127.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 76c | 125.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 60c | 124.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 33c | 117.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.97 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 28c | 113.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 112.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 103.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 39c | 102.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 39c | 102.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c1…4593backed Yes | 75c | 93.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 59c | 91.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 35c | 84.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 42c | 84.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 80.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 44c | 77.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 41c | 74.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 69c | 72.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 35c | 71.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed No | 73c | 71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 60c | 67.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…b863backed Yes | 68c | 58.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 66c | 57.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 57.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 56.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 70c | 56.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 59c | 55.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 74c | 55.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 26c | 53.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 50.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 68c | 50.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 28c | 50.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…8f12backed Yes | 23c | 50.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa367…df5cbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…38a6backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 46cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 67c | 49.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 48.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 30c | 47.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 47.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 43c | 45.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…c655backed No | 66c | 45.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 55c | 43.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 43.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 43c | 41.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 25c | 41.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…cb85backed Yes | 73c | 40.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 50c | 39.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 64c | 38.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…a89dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 37.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes | 31c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 54c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.