Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x395110bf60fd102aa321c54fa3430e25a76a2be54ab9229e51794b2b9ceaab13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 2,207$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 3c | 589.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 433.97$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 71c | 425.82$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 401.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 338$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 32c | 302.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 19c | 268.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 255.8$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 35c | 237.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 64c | 190.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 176.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 28c | 170.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 168.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 40c | 152.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 134.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 131.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 45c | 131.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 36c | 129.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 129.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 72c | 127.83$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…a89dbacked Yes | 23c | 127.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 119.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 118.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 51c | 117.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 117.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 18c | 116.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 112.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked No | 52c | 106.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 45c | 104.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 41c | 99.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 99.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 99.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 37c | 98.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 54c | 95.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 48c | 85.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 21c | 83.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 82.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 18c | 79.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 45c | 74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 70.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 33c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 60.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…b776backed No | 74c | 57.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 30c | 54.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 52.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 29c | 52.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 65c | 51.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 21c | 50.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…8f12backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd131…1de3backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 47.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 46.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 44.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0d…0699backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 41c | 39.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 37.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 64c | 37.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 37c | 36.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 35.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 39c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 62c | 32.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 75c | 31.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6e…15cfbacked Yes | 52c | 31.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 78c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 77c | 25.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed Yes | 63c | 24.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 45c | 24.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 72c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 22.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 69c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ef…c83ebacked No | 65c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed No | 78c | 21.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 20.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 73c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.