Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xede26908c5bd147f8367ddc01beda5e1030d8cebce04a87c6dc151c4b56972f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 2,070$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.8 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 2,002$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 1,939$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.78 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 1,455$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.72 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 71c | 691.97$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 25c | 533.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.26 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…88aabacked Over | 71c | 413.91$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 268.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 67c | 219.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.03 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…49bfbacked Over | 60c | 203.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 192.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 189.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 66c | 119.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 19c | 116.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 101.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b5…56cdbacked Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 44c | 85.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 60c | 69.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 41c | 68.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa722…8731backed Over | 60c | 61.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked Under | 30c | 60.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 71c | 59.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 60c | 57.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 41c | 49.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 45c | 43.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 58c | 40.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2245…29eabacked Over | 51c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 43c | 30.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed Over | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 52c | 19.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 69c | 18.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.