NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedeab21111541063fdeafd008f3f29d5f7fa8c30b59cdd0555f7dc4c36c4d7d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Penguins, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Blackhawks | 66c | 5,000$3,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.37 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 37c | 3,160$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.44 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Penguins | 34c | 2,815$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.93 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Blackhawks | 63c | 1,966$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.32 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 34c | 1,849$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.34 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Blackhawks | 63c | 1,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Penguins | 35c | 142.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Penguins | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Penguins | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Blackhawks | 65c | 93.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Blackhawks | 65c | 84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Penguins | 34c | 72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e54…9725backed Penguins | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 35c | 53.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Penguins | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Penguins | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Penguins | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Penguins | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Penguins | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Penguins | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Blackhawks | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Blackhawks | 63c | 26.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. BlackhawksPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.