Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedf13795988ddd2aeb6c0bb171bc6c59fb704b27ec7d68c0578d8500b99dad15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 75c | 1,111$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.75 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 26c | 833.06$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 24c | 799.05$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.55 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 74c | 717.9$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.65 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 23c | 445.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 290.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 80c | 249.13$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 75c | 183.63$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…14babacked Yes | 25c | 93.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 74c | 76.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bd8ebacked Yes | 23c | 42.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf265…348dbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 77c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…04febacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-08-24?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-08-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.