Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee0a77924c5fd2bffd3c672c4736f763d0006b9fb29d360a2bc89fa9c37a4d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba9d…46efbacked Yes | 28c | 307.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 287.96$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…46bebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 148.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 141.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 127$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 71c | 120.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 109.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 95.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 28c | 82.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 60.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 32c | 53.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 33c | 45.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked Yes | 27c | 41.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 72c | 27.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 70c | 25.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 21.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 18.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 74c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.