Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c861699bc2bca1e257fe8112367c641ddbe7c59398269756f2cb0a032ecb533
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 5c | 282.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 27c | 204.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 177$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 30c | 167.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 62c | 143.56$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 28c | 138$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 80c | 125.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 121.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 106.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 66c | 87.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 70c | 71.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 31c | 67.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 22c | 61.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 72c | 54.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 25c | 50.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 65c | 49.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…5b54backed No | 25c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 38.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 55c | 33.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 32.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 29.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 27.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 27.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 27.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 64c | 25.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 23.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 19.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 53c | 18.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 61c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.