Asian League · resolved market
Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee34712a373f33cacba1367c0d5b1867977b13092124083ebf96d21c4d540c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 66c | 3,000$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.9 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 42c | 1,917$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.07 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 1,427$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.73 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 67c | 1,215$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.39 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 24c | 596$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.37 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 34c | 104.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 33c | 101.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 77c | 99.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 91.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 58c | 66.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 42c | 66.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 36c | 66.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 60c | 53.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 59c | 46.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 68c | 30.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 59c | 30.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…097ebacked Over | 77c | 20.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 73c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5this page
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 0.5Over won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 4.5Under won
- Nagoya Grampus vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.