South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee3b6263979e2644df512fe6ac9e347dfa82bce2fdab9fac12445f7bf521d53e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 20c | 1,714$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.72 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 80c | 1,615$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.92 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 402.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 69c | 376$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 48c | 331.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.62 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed No | 17c | 266.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked No | 20c | 197.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 53c | 195.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.21 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 67c | 184.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed No | 39c | 180.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 73c | 170.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked No | 20c | 143.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…80abbacked Yes | 54c | 131.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 32c | 130.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed Yes | 25c | 119.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 15c | 113.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 70c | 106.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 53c | 99.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Yes | 80c | 97.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 45c | 96.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 55c | 89.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 54c | 74.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 59c | 69.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked No | 46c | 60.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 77c | 45.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4c…5c55backed Yes | 30c | 35.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 45c | 34.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed No | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…6161backed Yes | 55c | 26.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Yes | 53c | 23.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end in a draw?No won
- Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.