Mls · resolved market
Will San Diego FC win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee71d1c2973dcbcecc6cd834345c1a4ddd5a7bfb1e935bd59e615026d08928ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 37c | 25,000$9,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,750.32 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 59c | 17,325$10,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,298.05 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 63c | 7,797$4,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,911.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 52c | 4,364$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.29 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 3,481$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.99 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 32c | 3,314$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.02 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 60c | 1,900$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 41c | 551.76$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 61c | 398.56$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.93 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 63c | 313$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.19 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 35c | 293$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 60c | 291$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 13c | 247.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 63c | 217.52$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 62c | 199.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 69c | 149$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 56c | 48.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 65c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Diego FC win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Houston Dynamo vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.