Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Learner Tien vs Francisco Cerundolo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee7495d57c3e5814d45c7180e9b1b75730e230dfd5d63ef258be2dc2ee63d219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tienof Tien, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cerundolo | 53c | 3,384$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.61 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Tien | 47c | 2,384$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.61 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Tien | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Tien | 48c | 660.88$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.93 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cerundolo | 57c | 588$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.16 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cerundolo | 41c | 562.7$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Tien | 76c | 524.64$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Cerundolo | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Tien | 45c | 493.33$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.33 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Cerundolo | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tien | 43c | 377.72$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Tien | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cerundolo | 28c | 214.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Cerundolo | 43c | 195.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…e732backed Cerundolo | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Cerundolo | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Tien | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Tien | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cerundolo | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Cerundolo | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tien | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Cerundolo | 32c | 46.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Tien | 51c | 46.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cerundolo | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Cerundolo | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Tien | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.