Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb85f75ac35b9454e0b7a43830e554338cd7724f2819d6f6455292bc4568fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 736.04$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 280.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 79c | 259.49$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 206.08$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 145.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 116.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 110.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 74c | 109.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 106.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 101.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 85.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 75.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 21c | 74.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 25c | 49.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 66c | 45.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 27c | 40.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed No | 73c | 35.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7431…be26backed Yes | 37c | 27.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 17.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…2178backed No | 79c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked No | 73c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 78c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.