Music · resolved market
GRAMMYs 2024: Will Ice Spice win Best New Artist?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeec619cc38f21a38a25cef8eada40634618b16faf4df8fc0513bdbce37530f44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 78c | 6,427$5,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.75 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 63c | 2,427$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.23 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae6…a273backed Yes | 29c | 1,625$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 68c | 1,603$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.37 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e0…de9abacked Yes | 34c | 1,534$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…0abebacked Yes | 37c | 1,018$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 33c | 783.57$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 41c | 700$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…03e2backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea6…6d01backed Yes | 40c | 500$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…07bebacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 38c | 173.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…3b32backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…db84backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will Ice Spice win Best New Artist?this page
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will Jelly Roll win Best New Artist?No won
- GRAMMYs 2024: Will Noah Kahan win Best New Artist?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.