Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef88517639b11b87df6e2e6a8fe522b5a191806fb8590537aa38cf0a4d04aa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd684…f320backed Yes | 17c | 22,830$3,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.09 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 0c | 4,325$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 1,811$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 13c | 1,460$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.53 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,115$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.02 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 18c | 792.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.62 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 16c | 787.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 16c | 746$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 634.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…475cbacked Yes | 16c | 617.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…95e3backed Yes | 18c | 538.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 16c | 474.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…07f8backed Yes | 16c | 403.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 13c | 324.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…07e5backed Yes | 16c | 295.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Yes | 9c | 289.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Yes | 15c | 282.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed Yes | 18c | 231.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Yes | 15c | 201.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…645bbacked Yes | 17c | 188.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e4…361abacked Yes | 8c | 169.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 143.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 16c | 118.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…241bbacked Yes | 18c | 116.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6638…0b09backed Yes | 17c | 100.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…af55backed Yes | 16c | 78.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Yes | 17c | 69.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 16c | 65.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-12?this page
- Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?No won
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.