MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5c7df8bb9368038498274ccbcc7bd4fb26ee8d46c9a5532f97c0f924809f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 49c | 33,955$16,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,372.37 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 50c | 8,163$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,082.08 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Over | 51c | 5,909$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 5,067$2,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543.81 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 2,019$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.54 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3e6cbacked Under | 52c | 1,650$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 54c | 1,641$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.21 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 40c | 1,144$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.56 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 80c | 689.06$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 650.96$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.99 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 50c | 532$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.05 | 269 | 49.4%133 W · 136 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 32c | 396$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 349.26$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Under | 44c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…5928backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +7.2wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- Padres vs. CubsPadres won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.