MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef847010fe18724e6f7a80321176c37750ddd58648568d48d65e2ab4ab46a863
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Nationals, Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee4…bd96backed Phillies | 67c | 34,810$23,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,487.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfb…2ab9backed Nationals | 33c | 34,810$11,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,487.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 31c | 1,859$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.7 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Nationals | 35c | 1,144$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillies | 68c | 643.38$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.88 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Nationals | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Phillies | 65c | 443.67$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Phillies | 67c | 440.74$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Phillies | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Phillies | 68c | 333.66$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Nationals | 31c | 308.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked Phillies | 70c | 228$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Phillies | 71c | 128$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Nationals | 34c | 100.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Phillies | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…9ca0backed Nationals | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Phillies | 68c | 59.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Phillies | 69c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Phillies | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Phillies | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.