Fifa International · resolved market
Will Zambia win on 2025-12-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef9276b3d4008e98d0993f4d314a535a4abe6cbdadbf012163ef3b13307e2653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 10c | 8,637$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 3,878$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.38 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da5…e32ebacked Yes | 16c | 3,469$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.71 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 17c | 2,165$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.42 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 8c | 1,380$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,210$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 16c | 1,009$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…a807backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…cd16backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 11c | 680$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Yes | 9c | 536.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 419.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…82d8backed Yes | 11c | 341.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 10c | 336.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 14c | 310$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…0723backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…01aebacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…69a0backed Yes | 9c | 292.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb90a…b2fbbacked Yes | 14c | 286.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Yes | 15c | 228$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 14c | 168.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Yes | 12c | 151.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 15c | 143$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Yes | 13c | 137.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…e01fbacked Yes | 15c | 132.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…dc73backed Yes | 11c | 129.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 16c | 119.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 14c | 119$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…631ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 14c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…389fbacked Yes | 15c | 101.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Yes | 14c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…e69abacked Yes | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 15c | 87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…ca50backed Yes | 13c | 78.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 14c | 78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Yes | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zambia win on 2025-12-22?this page
- Will Mali vs. Zambia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Mali win on 2025-12-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.