Olympics · resolved market
Will Kaylee McKeown (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefbef317ce0613765143d2951e3049446eafa3c689895c2c19f2b7c695277588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 24c | 998.84$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 40c | 840$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Yes | 60c | 824.26$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 24c | 428.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 77c | 400$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 73c | 301$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 75c | 190.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…e8f2backed No | 26c | 156.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 74c | 154$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x27f8…b504backed Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc07…1026backed No | 25c | 130$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 76c | 103$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 23c | 100.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ed…abe0backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…2d38backed Yes | 76c | 34.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Yes | 74c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…1509backed Yes | 77c | 27.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833f…9724backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kaylee McKeown (AUS) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke?this page
- Will Kylie Masse (CAN) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke?No won
- Will Phoebe Bacon (USA) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke?No won
- Will Xuwei Peng (CHN) win Gold in Women's 200m Backstroke?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.