Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Matteo Arnaldi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf025abba38bb48bdc1f7e60ad9e94766a60dab1781095a784b18829c8eb90fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Kovacevic, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kovacevic | 27c | 3,935$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.52 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arnaldi | 57c | 1,639$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.19 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Arnaldi | 78c | 1,405$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.14 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Arnaldi | 75c | 1,006$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Kovacevic | 24c | 900$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Kovacevic | 62c | 843.9$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.22 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kovacevic | 27c | 499.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Arnaldi | 78c | 494.59$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Arnaldi | 47c | 371.69$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.51 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Kovacevic | 13c | 360$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Kovacevic | 14c | 313.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Arnaldi | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Kovacevic | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Kovacevic | 23c | 73.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Arnaldi | 69c | 72.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arnaldi | 74c | 71.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kovacevic | 22c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Arnaldi | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kovacevic | 54c | 51.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arnaldi | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arnaldi | 64c | 40.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Kovacevic | 47c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.