NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0625871f5950da63c5b3059fe82d44b6e0f06649f2554238cdae11d39a6d9ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Senators, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…f088backed Rangers | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…f6bebacked Senators | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Senators | 32c | 889.27$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.15 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Rangers | 67c | 795.15$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.4 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Rangers | 68c | 574.29$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Senators | 37c | 360$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rangers | 63c | 322.8$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.36 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Senators | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Senators | 33c | 224$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Rangers | 69c | 152.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Senators | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Rangers | 69c | 145.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…c63bbacked Rangers | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Senators | 32c | 52.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Senators | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec8…ad82backed Senators | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…01a8backed Senators | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Rangers | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Rangers | 67c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Rangers vs. SenatorsRangers won
- Rangers vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.