Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf069da267930c8d3a3a6e353d5f2e8325402c96d72df56c1e3e19e5e1a41d43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 67c | 2,238$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.69 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 33c | 1,534$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.13 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 38.3%54 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 17c | 1,371$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.57 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 15c | 1,353$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 33c | 618.16$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 343.06$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed No | 68c | 246.18$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…cc3abacked No | 56c | 237.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…13f0backed No | 56c | 235.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…6ddbbacked No | 56c | 235.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8602…fd48backed No | 56c | 233.51$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…adbfbacked No | 56c | 228.84$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…5907backed No | 56c | 227.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x333c…fe96backed No | 56c | 226.57$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…8031backed No | 56c | 225.39$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ec08backed No | 56c | 224.25$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c8…e7eabacked No | 56c | 223.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce1…4304backed No | 56c | 222.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…f965backed No | 56c | 221.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…5893backed No | 56c | 221.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…60dcbacked No | 56c | 221.1$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…6a9fbacked No | 56c | 215.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…332fbacked No | 67c | 182.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 139.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 8c | 127.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 67c | 84.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 67c | 84.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…251fbacked No | 69c | 83.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 93 | 73.1%68 W · 25 L | +17.6wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb135…f5b9backed No | 67c | 48.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…cddbbacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 63c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.