Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf077fd7a204dc8c685397580ed3aca33ea31f6a226ee4de45fec11c57ee61a21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf312…072dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,695$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…feccbacked Yes | 28c | 2,622$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…62b8backed No | 72c | 1,367$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9806…7f49backed No | 72c | 1,328$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ad…f8d1backed No | 72c | 1,328$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae48…1efebacked No | 72c | 1,294$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 337$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 267.84$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 221.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 205.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 183.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 164.17$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 33c | 160.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 156.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 38c | 155.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 32c | 153.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 128.08$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 125.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 110.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 38c | 103.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 70c | 98.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…adbebacked Yes | 43c | 98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 13c | 97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 25c | 94.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 92.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 92.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 90.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 88.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 78.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 65c | 77.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 76.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 30c | 75.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 69.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…4556backed Yes | 37c | 68.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 66.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 64.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 64.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 63.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 45c | 55.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 54.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 51.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 20c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 33c | 46.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 34c | 45.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 31c | 45.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 42.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 70c | 40.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 37c | 37.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 42c | 35.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 34.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 33c | 33.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed No | 61c | 30.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 35c | 30.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 68c | 27.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6f…f5f0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 79c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 61c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 71c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 65c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b5…1225backed No | 71c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.