Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe062527640f4ccd3bd349d183b1af0b691bf874630496dbffa5e56d0dd809922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,059 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5dd4…6caabacked No | 0c | 92,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 8c | 1,126$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 1,057$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 687.4$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 591.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 396.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 337$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 299.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.92 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 299.39$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 14c | 284.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.08 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 256.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 203.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 199.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 63c | 169.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 50c | 165.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 163.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.74 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 150.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 144.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 139.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 131.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 108.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 102$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 15c | 100.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 11c | 100.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 44c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 61c | 92.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 25c | 91.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 24c | 85.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 82.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked Yes | 17c | 79.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 43c | 74.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 64.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 35c | 62.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 40c | 46.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 41c | 43.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 62c | 41.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…2c30backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 60c | 34.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 55c | 29.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 80c | 27.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…901dbacked No | 74c | 27.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 24.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 19.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.