Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd5d4095bf11dd6b58fc57d1b904c05840d0f1946f7e30517186c4607760638
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 1,746$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 79c | 341.48$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 339.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 337$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 319.23$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 296.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 277.56$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 56c | 276.04$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 27c | 271.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 22c | 251.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 29c | 246.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 205.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 61c | 205.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.84 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 61c | 198.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 41c | 186.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed No | 61c | 184.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 183.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 176.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 167.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 71c | 165.27$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 161.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 40c | 157.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 32c | 155$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 64c | 152.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 19c | 150.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 19c | 149.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 80c | 148.59$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 143.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 76c | 140$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 108.32$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 68c | 107.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 107.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 40c | 104.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 102$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2aa…586fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 22c | 99.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 14c | 99.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 98.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 22c | 96.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 23c | 94.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 22c | 90.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 86.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 61c | 78.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 67c | 77.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 60c | 74.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 31c | 69.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 69.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 68.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 63.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd463…46aebacked Yes | 23c | 62.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 57c | 61.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 74c | 61.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 31c | 61.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 24c | 60.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 59.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…5b94backed No | 61c | 59.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes | 38c | 58.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 55.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…3783backed Yes | 34c | 52.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 48.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 33c | 47.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f1…1c9dbacked No | 64c | 45.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 44.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 34c | 44.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…bdd7backed No | 68c | 42.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…2987backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 39.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Yes | 50c | 39.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 39.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 39.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 72c | 34.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 29c | 34.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f122backed Yes | 42c | 34.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 33.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…5b03backed Yes | 42c | 31.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04f…5822backed No | 60c | 30.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 63c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…763dbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 70c | 28.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…7b4bbacked Yes | 44c | 27.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.