UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf082de7023a563713b597737160ffa5aee779d05da3234b2650b9e9fcab16809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 58c | 517.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 80c | 422.12$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 42c | 356.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.76 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 49c | 285$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 30c | 279$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 219.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 63c | 159.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…5f13backed Over | 45c | 133.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…8de8backed Over | 49c | 123.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Under | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…961abacked Over | 50c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f3…f6b1backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 46c | 31.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…293fbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4f…3690backed Under | 54c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card)Spivac won
- Will Ante Delija win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Serghei Spivac win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.