Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0861f2da22ffefe313684f356efa5c201351be9817fe421b2174307d6ce3870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 54c | 777.05$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.31 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…1b1ebacked Yes | 32c | 494.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…699abacked Yes | 37c | 400$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…282fbacked Yes | 42c | 248.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…5560backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 154$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8739…2401backed No | 74c | 153.73$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 148$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…1515backed Yes | 25c | 138$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…dbacbacked No | 78c | 112.72$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 24c | 92.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked No | 16c | 70.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…60fbbacked No | 72c | 27.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on April 23?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on April 23?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on April 23?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on April 23?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on April 23?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on April 23?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on April 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.