NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08b238bbfacf8c0b830c0631fe4098a48da7631a2153e55913fb103099341af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Warriors | 51c | 26,229$13,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,852.06 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pacers | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Warriors | 52c | 8,795$4,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,221.6 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Pacers | 48c | 8,000$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 51c | 6,860$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,482.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Pacers | 49c | 4,270$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.3 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Warriors | 47c | 3,762$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.46 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Warriors | 53c | 3,483$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.14 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…353fbacked Warriors | 52c | 3,045$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.47 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Pacers | 57c | 2,110$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.84 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Pacers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Pacers | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Warriors | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 49c | 1,446$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.54 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 49c | 777$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Pacers | 51c | 777$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.27 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 48c | 719.06$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.46 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 51c | 650.66$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 49c | 644.48$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 51c | 607.04$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5623…6930backed Warriors | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 239 | 38.1%91 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed Pacers | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Pacers | 49c | 410$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Pacers | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Warriors | 52c | 381.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.36 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pacers | 6c | 353.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…18edbacked Pacers | 51c | 309.8$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 48c | 232$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pacers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…8ce4backed Pacers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 48c | 187.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Pacers | 13c | 136.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Pacers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Pacers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Warriors | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pacers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Warriors | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…d559backed Pacers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…5ff4backed Pacers | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Pacers | 45c | 66.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536b…8134backed Warriors | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb365…382dbacked Warriors | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Warriors | 56c | 46.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Warriors | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Pacers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Warriors | 64c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Pacers | 48c | 29.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Pacers won
- Pacers vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Pacers vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.