Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf096996c6e6c709f7c751c1c6efbb8d87e4a41c7179896e566ed9ca494ad8bdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,449 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 4c | 324.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 232.21$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 16c | 218.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 176.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 61c | 167.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 167.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 76c | 166.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 143.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked Yes | 41c | 135.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 48c | 126.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 56c | 123.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 47c | 117.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 70c | 107.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 23c | 107.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 36c | 99.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 97.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 31c | 96.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 28c | 84.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 34c | 81.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 62c | 80.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 70c | 70.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 67.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 42c | 64.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 21c | 60.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 73c | 54.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 56c | 49.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…cb87backed Yes | 47c | 42.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 29c | 42.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 40.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 55c | 39.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 46c | 30.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed No | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 28.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 27.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 64c | 24.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 21.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 20.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…df36backed Yes | 64c | 18.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 64c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 18.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x076f…dc12backed No | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 67c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.