Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e0fc369c1885c30704743ccb1bb85cf64d42646a90a86c164ed3237070debc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,450 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 36c | 184.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 166.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 143.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 44c | 138.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 32c | 135.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 135.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 113.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 111.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 108.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 97.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 72c | 97.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 43c | 93.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 87.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 83.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 31c | 83.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 23c | 81.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 80.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 66c | 77.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 31c | 71.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 58c | 67.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Yes | 34c | 67.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 64.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 33c | 59.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 55.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 51.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…05babacked Yes | 58c | 47.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 61c | 47.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 64c | 46.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 50c | 42.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 32c | 40.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 47c | 40.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 37.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 40c | 37.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…df36backed Yes | 57c | 30.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 46c | 26.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 47c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 60c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 72c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 68c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 17.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.