CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0c900fe0b5c3bea04b4302136b69fa282f825d25070bcb9eeb2c513aba93e41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washedof STATE, Washed
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked STATE | 55c | 2,375$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.6 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x568c…fbd0backed Washed | 48c | 2,350$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.93 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa960…9407backed STATE | 52c | 1,998$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.07 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed STATE | 58c | 1,769$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.39 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…2c72backed STATE | 58c | 1,565$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.61 | 280 | 56.4%158 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Washed | 43c | 1,473$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.98 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Washed | 45c | 1,206$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.52 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…4d14backed Washed | 43c | 1,128$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.29 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Washed | 44c | 629.69$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.96 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed STATE | 56c | 604.55$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.55 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 58c | 596.37$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.89 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…9aeebacked Washed | 44c | 589.76$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.26 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Washed | 41c | 580$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.2 | 332 | 37%123 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…2d2dbacked Washed | 45c | 561.93$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.26 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Washed | 43c | 553.89$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.36 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed STATE | 55c | 437.76$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.77 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Washed | 37c | 409.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.3 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed STATE | 56c | 403.93$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Washed | 45c | 389.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…7035backed STATE | 59c | 333.72$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 454 | 65.9%299 W · 155 L | +20.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Washed | 41c | 289.41$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 280 | 52.9%148 W · 132 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Washed | 41c | 286.5$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.08 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed STATE | 55c | 219.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Washed | 47c | 215.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.18 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Washed | 47c | 196.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Washed | 41c | 192.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked STATE | 62c | 167.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa500…39d1backed Washed | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked STATE | 52c | 149.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked STATE | 51c | 124.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked STATE | 63c | 116.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…3f74backed Washed | 42c | 115.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed STATE | 55c | 109.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Washed | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Washed | 36c | 102.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed STATE | 56c | 101.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 226 | 50%113 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Washed | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Washed | 56c | 98.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 835 | 43.6%364 W · 471 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Washed | 48c | 76.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed STATE | 61c | 76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 164 | 64.6%106 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked STATE | 47c | 73.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Washed | 41c | 68.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Washed | 56c | 67.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked STATE | 57c | 64.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 472 | 60%283 W · 189 L | +31.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Washed | 76c | 59.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 222 | 56.8%126 W · 96 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Washed | 44c | 54.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 211 | 59.7%126 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed STATE | 24c | 54.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed STATE | 52c | 48.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed STATE | 54c | 47.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…8eb1backed Washed | 64c | 45.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked STATE | 54c | 39.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…a0edbacked STATE | 51c | 36.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15e…4874backed STATE | 42c | 33.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2c…0978backed STATE | 56c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed Washed | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Washed | 47c | 25.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed STATE | 61c | 25.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked STATE | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a84…af78backed Washed | 45c | 23.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aca…50c1backed STATE | 63c | 20.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked STATE | 67c | 19.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked STATE | 58c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.