UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0cd65232515cfd26a759ce1251cfc377eae002987f84a000cdd480af3f7ce1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Yes | 62c | 538$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.13 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 41c | 424.2$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 66c | 300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 38c | 282$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 37c | 231$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 59c | 170.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…5326backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 50c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 43c | 44.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed No | 44c | 30.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Dustin Jacoby vs. Muhammad Said (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Muhammad Said won
- Will Dustin Jacoby win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Muhammad Said win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.