Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d1d71cb43403a575e0f9e93a206a7fa50f431da37447f09f1f4e5c6dbac8d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 27c | 708.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.16 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 11c | 385.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 377.91$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 3c | 368.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 35c | 249.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 151.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…d9e7backed Under | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 31c | 127.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 122 | 61.5%75 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 69c | 108.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bf…0169backed Under | 71c | 83.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 32c | 61.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 66c | 44.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 34c | 34.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 241 | 46.9%113 W · 128 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 29.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 76c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…5ba7backed Under | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)Aarhus GF won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5)Aarhus GF won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.