Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e8462d41e8059913e0bfbe6108ffe541c949a4dce37f8b98ee9bd2d2471715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 57c | 2,980$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.47 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 1,864$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.59 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 46c | 1,349$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.19 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 1,019$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.92 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…e863backed Over | 52c | 959.56$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 333.01$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 54c | 317.64$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 9c | 277.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 10c | 190.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 55c | 105.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 35c | 42.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde96…7dfcbacked Over | 52c | 30.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed Under | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…7be7backed Under | 47c | 27.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 2.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kawasaki Frontale won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.