CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: Natus Vincere vs. Astralis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1041133207afa0bd25fd0d32ecdd692dc1c6bde8eb43b1eb877004dfe991d72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof NAVI, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Astralis | 26c | 6,126$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,530.9 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed NAVI | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked NAVI | 72c | 1,092$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.92 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Astralis | 29c | 919.24$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.61 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Astralis | 66c | 731.26$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.08 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Astralis | 28c | 630.33$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed NAVI | 76c | 505.28$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.38 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Astralis | 29c | 392$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Astralis | 27c | 384.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.18 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked NAVI | 70c | 360$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Astralis | 26c | 315.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed NAVI | 74c | 305.41$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…200bbacked NAVI | 51c | 305.38$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed NAVI | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed NAVI | 74c | 295.99$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.92 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7d47backed NAVI | 75c | 224.18$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…a0f0backed NAVI | 74c | 205.39$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked NAVI | 75c | 199.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked NAVI | 73c | 139$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Astralis | 25c | 137$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed NAVI | 74c | 134.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3a…9b33backed NAVI | 73c | 131.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed NAVI | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed NAVI | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Astralis | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…de0fbacked NAVI | 74c | 29.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…b840backed NAVI | 75c | 26.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.