Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf116c2d5e51fa4ad813e33169cee9f7dceb55e26e63115f3ddcddff9de93f13c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Over | 28c | 1,238$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 72c | 872.16$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.13 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 814.27$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 30c | 205.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 186$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 28c | 179.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 75c | 147.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 74c | 108.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 90.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 28c | 90.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed Over | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 70c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…2db0backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Under | 75c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 70c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 74c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 73c | 21.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Under | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5)Hertha BSC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.