Bundesliga · resolved market
Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf14f08b923406adb9561670753cccc17609afdb1d8dd4fa57d44a1501f27cb7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 55c | 37,012$20,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,354.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 42c | 29,011$12,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,868.14 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 27c | 10,241$2,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,507.19 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 7,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 4,616$3,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 43c | 1,500$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 1,081$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.03 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 52c | 489.2$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 336.21$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.38 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…f6c1backed Over | 51c | 276.21$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…0c1fbacked Over | 47c | 199.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 151$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 48c | 104.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 98.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 75c | 87.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Over | 45c | 83.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Over | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…92e8backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 30c | 62.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 59.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 36c | 52.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…d6f1backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Over | 30c | 37.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…115fbacked Over | 38c | 28.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Union Berlin (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim won
- Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Heidenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.