Earnings · resolved market
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1608932598295f9c1bd6c801bc0111dcd41d8723a4af7cdceb50fe903b7d949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea9…894cbacked Yes | 67c | 1,308$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.72 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 61cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 36c | 373.88$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.86 | 348 | 36.8%128 W · 220 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 52c | 172.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.91 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 52c | 160$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 33c | 125.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed No | 54c | 92.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 48c | 91.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked No | 59c | 85.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 82.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 38c | 76.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 33c | 70.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 64.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 64c | 62.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 50.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 38c | 35.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 60c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…e1f4backed Yes | 63c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…1bb6backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…f1bcbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 61c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…d53abacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.