Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b7f7e53bed3cc7e1e80d14d783e5c2e4e1447a3fc54280ff0ab9d8eef9c5e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vallejoof Paul, Vallejo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Vallejo | 49c | 3,633$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.99 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…9098backed Paul | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.98 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Paul | 58c | 1,674$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.94 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Vallejo | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Paul | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.99 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…f557backed Paul | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Vallejo | 43c | 789.3$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.12 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Paul | 46c | 738.09$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.61 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Vallejo | 49c | 631.7$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.17 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Vallejo | 49c | 375.89$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 211 | 49.8%105 W · 106 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked Vallejo | 49c | 350.54$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Vallejo | 53c | 274.06$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ae…5399backed Vallejo | 48c | 245.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Vallejo | 49c | 237.35$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…3c94backed Vallejo | 49c | 196.32$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Paul | 54c | 179.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 509 | 52.1%265 W · 244 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Paul | 55c | 169.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Vallejo | 49c | 159.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Vallejo | 48c | 157.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a9…c488backed Vallejo | 48c | 116.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…68b6backed Paul | 62c | 95.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…e97cbacked Paul | 57c | 78.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Paul | 55c | 51.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed Vallejo | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Vallejo | 45c | 41.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Vallejo | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3a…f788backed Vallejo | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Vallejo | 49c | 36.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Vallejo | 50c | 35.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Vallejo | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5)this page
- US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Tommy PaulTommy Paul won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.