Tennis · resolved market
ITF The Hague: Karl Friberg vs Alejandro Juan Mano
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf25219ba6620c7314b92ae32ada35c510c6ec479b9c07151f0c70af900c89a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alejandro Juan Manoof Karl Friberg, Alejandro Juan Mano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alejandro Juan Mano | 72c | 4,965$3,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.54 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Karl Friberg | 27c | 1,205$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 1,788 | 48.8%872 W · 916 L | +31.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Karl Friberg | 15c | 1,100$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 1,306 | 65.3%853 W · 453 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Karl Friberg | 28c | 977.57$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.02 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Karl Friberg | 26c | 833.7$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.88 | 380 | 49.5%188 W · 192 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Alejandro Juan Mano | 72c | 723.31$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.86 | 1,742 | 50.2%875 W · 867 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Karl Friberg | 28c | 433.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Karl Friberg | 27c | 408.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Karl Friberg | 26c | 385.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 834 | 57.1%476 W · 358 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Alejandro Juan Mano | 79c | 311.13$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 5,553 | 48.6%2,700 W · 2,853 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Karl Friberg | 50c | 293.82$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 1,106 | 60.2%666 W · 440 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Karl Friberg | 38c | 245.33$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3,279 | 40.3%1,322 W · 1,957 L | +24.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Karl Friberg | 34c | 198.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Karl Friberg | 37c | 150.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Karl Friberg | 41c | 134.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 8,057 | 50.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L | +90.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Karl Friberg | 27c | 118.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 981 | 56%549 W · 432 L | +23.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Karl Friberg | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Karl Friberg | 43c | 92.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Karl Friberg | 29c | 91.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,023 | 50%511 W · 512 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Alejandro Juan Mano | 60c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Karl Friberg | 40c | 70.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 7,129 | 39.7%2,832 W · 4,297 L | -14.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Karl Friberg | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Alejandro Juan Mano | 71c | 66.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Karl Friberg | 27c | 65.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 967 | 55.9%541 W · 426 L | +21.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Karl Friberg | 27c | 63.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 988 | 55.5%548 W · 440 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Alejandro Juan Mano | 79c | 63.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 386 | 74.6%288 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Karl Friberg | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Alejandro Juan Mano | 59c | 49.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Alejandro Juan Mano | 69c | 43.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Karl Friberg | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Karl Friberg | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…7f9bbacked Alejandro Juan Mano | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 171 | 68.4%117 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Alejandro Juan Mano | 62c | 24.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 444 | 44.6%198 W · 246 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Alejandro Juan Mano | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,043 | 54.3%566 W · 477 L | +38.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Alejandro Juan Mano | 76c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Alejandro Juan Mano | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 826 | 59.3%490 W · 336 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Alejandro Juan Mano | 62c | 16.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 906 | 54.6%495 W · 411 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.